Most regular grocery store goers and egg consumers have likely noticed the dramatic increase in egg prices in recent months. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the average price of a dozen eggs in the U.S. increased from $2.52 to $4.95 from January 2024 to January 2025. This number continues to rise and is expected by the USDA to increase by 40% over the course of 2025, with some speculating that it could get as expensive as $1 per egg to the consumer. The inflation rates across the U.S. have been on a downward trend since peaking at almost 9% in June 2022; however, inflation is still 2.999% and high egg prices play a role.
Egg prices in cities across the U.S. are utilized for calculation of inflation and consumer price index and may be one of the reasons that inflation is still at almost 3%. The primary reason for such high egg prices relates to the current supply levels, with demand remaining fairly constant in spite of decreased supply. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has wreaked havoc across poultry farms in the U.S. since it was detected in production populations in January 2022. Many wild, oftentimes migratory birds carry the pathogen and spread it from location to location, and it even mutated and infected dairy cattle in West Texas in March 2024. Since HPAI began spreading in dairy cattle, it has taken the dairy industry by storm and has been reported on 977 farms across 17 states, with countless more unreported farms being negatively affected by it. In both the poultry and dairy industries, consumers have not been negatively affected by food safety concerns but primarily by pricing. The pasteurization process for milk kills any pathogens in the milk before it is processed into a finished dairy product or bottled for fluid consumption, and poultry processors must depopulate their barns when a single case of HPAI arises in their flock. Since the start of 2025 alone, around 30.1 million egg layers have been lost due to the disease and depopulation efforts to stop its spread. Eighty percent of the laying hen losses have occurred in the Midwest, with Ohio contributing to 44% of those lost in 2025, 22% in Indiana, 13% in Missouri, and an additional 1% in Iowa. On the supply side, this does not bode well for Midwest consumers, given the large strain on productivity of flocks in the region, where many of our eggs originate.
On February 26th, the new Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, announced a multi-faceted approach to curb HPAI, protect the U.S. poultry industry, and lower egg prices. The USDA will devote $1 billion to implement its 5 pronged approach which involves the following:
1) Investing and developing the gold standard of biosecurity on poultry farms nationwide;
2) Providing relief to farmers affected by depopulation and help accelerating repopulation of their barns;
3) Reducing regulatory burdens on the chicken and egg industries to promote innovation and reduce prices;
4) Developing pathways for vaccines and other strategies to directly combat the virus; and
5) Developing a strategy to temporarily decrease egg exports and increase egg imports to the U.S. to bolster domestic supply.
The new administration hopes to achieve a boost in the efficiency and safety of the egg supply chain through this approach, while driving down consumer costs. In addition to this initiative, there is mounting optimism for the situation to improve, with many of the new HPAI cases being more localized and a decrease in the surge of cases compared to last year. However, due to the length of time it takes to repopulate many barns, consumers can likely expect to pay higher prices for eggs over the next year than they are used to paying.
For the news release by the USDA regarding their approach to combating HPAI and high egg prices;
For the FRED graphs showing egg prices and consumer price index changes;