NFL Week 7 Performance Recap

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

In a Thursday night thriller between two 40-something quarterbacks, Joe Flacco outdueled Aaron Rodgers as the Bengals edged the Steelers 33–31, cashing as 2.5-point underdogs and snapping a four-game skid. Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, including a clutch final drive capped by Evan McPherson’s 36-yard game-winner with seven seconds left. Ja’Marr Chase set a franchise record with 16 catches for 161 yards and a score, while Tee Higgins added 96 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers tossed four TDs — including a 68-yarder to Pat Freiermuth that briefly gave Pittsburgh the lead — but two costly interceptions flipped momentum. The total sailed past the 42.5-point over/under as Cincinnati scored on seven of its last eight drives, giving bettors plenty of fireworks in one of the week’s wildest finishes.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Matthew Stafford lit up Wembley Stadium with a five-touchdown masterclass, leading the Rams to a commanding 35–7 rout over the Jaguars and easily covering the 3.5-point spread while cashing the under on the 45.5 total. Stafford completed 21 of 33 passes for 182 yards, hitting Davante Adams for three scores and connecting with rookies Konata Mumpfield and Terrance Ferguson for two more. Adams’ three-touchdown day tied an NFL international game record, and his chemistry with Stafford filled the void left by injured wideout Puka Nacua. The Jaguars, who came in as slight favorites after a week in London, never found rhythm — committing 13 penalties, surrendering seven sacks, and seeing Trevor Lawrence pressured relentlessly. Rookie Travis Hunter provided Jacksonville’s lone highlight with his first career touchdown, but this one was all Rams, who improved to 5–2 and continue to reward bettors backing them against the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings

Jalen Hurts silenced any early-season doubts with a perfect-passer-rating performance, throwing for 326 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Eagles past the Vikings 28–22, narrowly covering as 5.5-point favorites. Hurts connected with A.J. Brown for two scores and DeVonta Smith for a 79-yard bomb en route to a career-high 183 receiving yards, while rookie Jalyx Hunt’s pick-six swung momentum early. Carson Wentz moved the ball but couldn’t finish drives, settling for five field goals and two costly red-zone turnovers that doomed Minnesota’s upset bid. Philadelphia’s offense finally looked like its championship self, rewarding bettors backing the Birds to bounce back after two straight losses, as the total crept just under the 51-point line thanks to late-game clock control.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

In Mike Vrabel’s emotional return to Nashville, the Patriots handled business and easily covered the 4.5-point spread with a 31–13 win over the Titans, hitting the over on the 42-point total. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye was razor-sharp, completing 21 of 23 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns, joining Patrick Mahomes and Dan Marino as the only players under 24 to post six straight 200-yard, 100-plus rating games. New England’s defense dominated the second half — K’Lavon Chaisson recorded two sacks and a fumble return touchdown, while Harold Landry notched one against his former team. The Titans showed early life under interim coach Mike McCoy, jumping out to a 10–3 lead behind Cam Ward, but the Patriots’ 28 unanswered points buried any upset hopes. Vrabel’s revenge win extends New England’s streak to four straight — a profitable run for bettors backing the Pats both straight up and against the spread.

Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

The Browns snapped their three-game skid in emphatic fashion, blowing past the Dolphins 31–6 as 1.5-point home underdogs and crushing the under on a rain-soaked 39-point total. Rookie Quinshon Judkins powered Cleveland’s offense with three rushing touchdowns — two from direct snaps — while Dillon Gabriel earned his first home win as the Browns’ starter, efficiently managing the game in brutal weather conditions. Cleveland’s defense stole the spotlight, forcing four turnovers and scoring on a Tyson Campbell pick-six to bury a Miami team that looked completely lost. Tua Tagovailoa’s three interceptions and 24.1 passer rating made it back-to-back dreadful outings for the Dolphins, who have now dropped five straight against the spread. The Dawg Pound finally had reason to celebrate, cashing moneyline tickets and showing life as Judkins emerged as a legitimate offensive anchor.

Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints

Dennis Allen got his revenge in style, as the Bears’ defense dominated in a 26–14 win over the Saints, easily covering the 3.5-point spread and cashing the under on the 41-point total. Facing his former team for the first time since being fired last season, Allen’s defense forced four turnovers and sacked rookie Spencer Rattler four times, setting the tone early with a Montez Sweat strip-sack and a Nahshon Wright interception return. Despite an uneven showing from Caleb Williams (172 yards, one pick), Chicago leaned on the ground game — D’Andre Swift rushed for 124 yards and a score, while rookie Kyle Monangai added 81 and another touchdown. The Bears have now won four straight and are quietly becoming a bettor’s favorite ATS, while the Saints remain a fade candidate at 1–6 — their worst start since 1999.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs delivered their most complete performance of the season, steamrolling the Raiders 31–0 as 7.5-point favorites and rewarding bettors who backed Kansas City to cover with ease. Mahomes threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, two to Rashee Rice, who returned from injury and suspension to spark an offense that scored on its first five possessions and piled up 434 total yards. Kansas City’s defense was just as dominant, holding Las Vegas to 96 yards and only three first downs — their fewest in a game since 2006. The shutout, their fourth ever against the Raiders, marked the Chiefs’ second straight week cashing the over on team total points despite the full game staying under 41.5. With Rice back in the mix and Mahomes clicking, Kansas City looked every bit the Super Bowl contender bettors have been waiting to see.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers’ bright yellow alternates couldn’t hide another messy showing, as Indianapolis cruised to a 38–24 win and easily covered as 2.5-point road underdogs, pushing the total past the 47-point over. The Colts dominated the trenches despite missing key defenders, with Jonathan Taylor rumbling for three touchdowns and Daniel Jones adding two more through the air. Los Angeles, still riddled with injuries across the offensive line and backfield, mustered only 54 rushing yards while Justin Herbert threw for 420 yards but sabotaged drives with two costly red-zone interceptions. Down 23–3 at halftime, the Chargers never seriously threatened, and bettors backing Indy’s team total or Taylor anytime TD props cashed early. For Jim Harbaugh’s squad, this was a wake-up call — and for sharp bettors, a reminder that fading the injury-depleted Bolts remains profitable.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants

In one of the wildest betting swings of the season, the Broncos pulled off a historic 33–32 comeback win over the Giants, erasing a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit to cash as 3.5-point home favorites and obliterate live-moneyline odds that had dipped below +3000. Bo Nix made history with two rushing and two passing touchdowns — all in the final quarter — as Denver scored on its last five possessions after being shut out for three. The Giants, who led 26–8 with under seven minutes left, saw their win probability collapse after multiple blown drives and a missed extra point. Wil Lutz’s 39-yard field goal as time expired sealed the improbable cover and pushed the total comfortably over the 40.5 line. For bettors, Denver’s comeback wasn’t just improbable — it was a once-in-a-generation swing that turned sure losses into miraculous wins.

Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Despite a travel nightmare and an early 10-point deficit, the Packers rallied late behind Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons to edge the Cardinals 27–23, narrowly covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Jacobs, a game-time decision with a calf injury, delivered two touchdowns — including the go-ahead score with under two minutes left — marking his third straight multi-TD game and rewarding anytime TD bettors once again. Parsons was dominant on defense, racking up three sacks and a key stop on Arizona’s final drive as the Packers defense came up clutch in the red zone. Green Bay’s late push helped the over (45) hit by a slim margin, while the Cardinals fell to a brutal 0–5 stretch decided by four points or fewer — a painful trend for spread bettors backing them to finally close.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Even with multiple stars sidelined, the 49ers leaned on Christian McCaffrey to grind out a 20–10 win over the Falcons, covering as 5-point home favorites while the under (42) comfortably cashed. McCaffrey delivered a vintage performance with 201 total yards and two touchdowns — his first 200-yard game from scrimmage since 2019 — powering a San Francisco offense that finally rediscovered its run-heavy identity. Backup quarterback Mac Jones was efficient enough to manage the game, while the 49ers’ defense, missing Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, clamped down late with key stops on back-to-back fourth-quarter drives. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. struggled to sustain drives despite 241 passing yards, and the Falcons’ offense stalled in crucial moments. Bettors backing San Francisco and the under walked away happy, as McCaffrey once again proved to be the safest prop play in football.

Monday Night Preview:

Houston Texans vs. Seattle SeahawksThe Texans, fresh off back-to-back wins, travel to Seattle as roughly 3-point underdogs in a primetime spot where the Seahawks are favored to cover, with the total hovering near 41.5 points. Houston boasts the NFL’s top- ranked defense (just 12.2 points allowed per game) and should be fresh off their bye, but their offensive line woes remain glaring and could be exploited by Seattle’s strong pass rush. The Seahawks, with Sam Darnold trending upward and an elite WR in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, appear set to win at home — and the sharp money supports Seattle -3. At the same time, the modest total suggests a lean toward the under, potentially rewarding bettors focused on defense and ground game.NFL bets: lean Seahawks -3; also consider under 41.5 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

In the early Monday night slot, the Buccaneers head to Detroit as underdogs (around +5.5) against a Lions team that has looked dangerous but still carries questions. Tampa Bay’s offense has been inconsistent, but they command value whenever Baker Mayfield is sharp and the defense gets takeaways. Detroit, meanwhile, has piled up yards but tends to win in tight contests — five of their last six decided by four points or fewer. From a betting perspective: Buccaneers offer sleeper value as the higher-variance pick, while the Lions are better leaned at the moneyline than taking them plus the spread. Also keep an eye on props — Tampa’s playmakers could provide value at longer odds.