NFL Week 16 Performance Recap

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

In one of the wildest finishes of the season, Seattle (+1.5) erased a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit and delivered a gutsy overtime win with the first 2-point conversion walk-off in NFL history, stunning the Rams 38–37 on Thursday night. After Matthew Stafford (457 yards, 3 TDs) hit Puka Nacua (12 receptions, 225 yards, 2 TDs) for a 41-yard score in OT, Sam Darnold answered with a touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba — who set a franchise record with his 101st catch and now sits at 104 for the season — before finding Eric Saubert wide open for the game-winning conversion. Seattle converted all three of its 2-point attempts, including a bizarre backward-pass recovery by Zach Charbonnet that tied the game late in regulation. The Rams piled up 581 total yards but came up empty on four of their final five drives in regulation, while the game flew over the total and rewarded anyone backing the Seahawks as road dogs. The win clinched a playoff spot for Seattle and tightened its grip on the NFC West, while L.A. now faces a tougher path to avoid a road playoff opener.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Philadelphia didn’t look sharp early, but the Eagles still covered and pulled away late in a 29–18 win that clinched a second straight NFC East title and pushed the game over a modest total. After a sloppy first half that included a fumbled opening kickoff, three missed field goals by Jake Elliott, and a halftime deficit, Jalen Hurts steadied things by completing 22 of 30 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns while adding 40 rushing yards. Saquon Barkley powered the turnaround with 21 carries for 132 yards and a score, later adding a fiery 2-point conversion that helped seal it. Philadelphia dominated possession with a 17-play, 83-yard drive in the third quarter and eventually wore down a Washington team that has now lost nine of its last 10. The Commanders shuffled quarterbacks after Marcus Mariota exited with a hand injury, and Cooper DeJean’s interception of Josh Johnson helped flip momentum for good. It wasn’t a clean performance from the reigning champs, but it was a professional one — the kind that rewards favorites late, cashes tickets, and sends Philadelphia into January right where it expects to be.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Chicago cashed as home underdogs and delivered another gut punch to Green Bay with a stunning 22–16 overtime win, erasing a 10-point deficit in the final two minutes before Caleb Williams hit DJ Moore for a 46-yard walk-off touchdown. The Bears flipped a game that Green Bay held a 99% win probability in, forcing overtime after recovering an onside kick and scoring with 24 seconds left, then capitalizing when Malik Willis fumbled on fourth-and-1 in OT. Williams finished 19 of 34 for 250 yards and two touchdowns, repeatedly beating pressure late and tying an NFL record with his eighth career fourth-quarter comeback in just his first two seasons. Moore led the way with 97 receiving yards and the game-winner, while Chicago’s defense tightened after Jordan Love exited with a concussion in the second quarter. The Bears (11-4) not only got revenge for a loss at Lambeau two weeks earlier, but also tightened their grip on the NFC North and sent this one over the total in dramatic fashion, rewarding bettors who backed Chicago’s late-game resilience in the rivalry.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers covered comfortably and moved a step closer to January with a 34–17 win that was never really in doubt once Justin Herbert settled in behind a clean pocket. Playing his third straight game with a heavily protected left hand, Herbert was surgical — 23 of 29 for 300 yards, two touchdown passes, and a short rushing score — as Los Angeles scored on all three first-half drives and finished with a season-high 452 total yards. The Cowboys jumped out early with two Dak Prescott touchdown drives but couldn’t sustain it, going scoreless after halftime as the Chargers’ defense tightened and Dallas failed to generate a single sack. Quentin Johnston torched his former hometown team for 104 yards and a score, while Herbert’s 33-yard scramble late in the third quarter helped push the margin beyond the number and keep this one cruising under control. Dallas never seriously threatened after pulling within 20–17, and the Chargers (11-4) rewarded bettors laying the points in a matchup that exposed a Cowboys defense running out of answers.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota escaped with a 16–13 win in a game that played exactly to the under and rewarded anyone willing to lay a small number in a matchup of two eliminated teams. The Vikings lost rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to a hand injury just before halftime, but backup Max Brosmer steadied things by completing 7 of 9 passes and guiding the go-ahead drive that set up Will Reichard’s 30-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. McCarthy finished 9 of 14 for 108 yards before exiting, while Justin Jefferson did most of the offensive lifting with six catches for 85 yards. New York’s offense never found traction, managing just 13 net passing yards as Jaxson Dart was sacked five times and threw a late interception. The Giants dropped their ninth straight, failed to score an offensive touchdown for the second consecutive meeting with Minnesota, and helped keep this one in low-scoring, grind-it-out territory from start to finish.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati smashed the number and blew past the total with a 45–21 rout that turned into a turnover avalanche after halftime, as Joe Burrow looked fully back in rhythm while carving up Miami’s defense. Burrow completed 25 of 32 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns, posting a 146.5 passer rating before exiting early in the fourth quarter, and the Bengals scored 28 points off four straight Dolphins turnovers to turn a 17–14 halftime edge into a runaway. Chase Brown did most of the damage in the third quarter, scoring three times — two receiving and one rushing — while Ja’Marr Chase topped 100 yards and Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki added red-zone scores. Miami showed early life behind rookie Quinn Ewers, who threw for 260 yards in his first career start, but the offense unraveled once mistakes piled up, making this another second-half collapse for a Dolphins team spiraling toward the finish. With both teams already eliminated, Cincinnati played loose, aggressive football, rewarding bettors who trusted Burrow in a bounce-back spot and turning what looked like a meaningless late-season game into one of the week’s easiest covers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Carolina delivered its biggest result in years, cashing as home underdogs and tightening the NFC South race with a gritty 23–20 win that flipped late on a rookie’s redemption moment. Bryce Young continued his clutch trend, throwing for 191 yards and two touchdowns while guiding another fourth-quarter game-deciding drive — the 12th of his 14 career wins to come in crunch time — before rookie safety Lathan Ransom sealed it with a sliding interception of Baker Mayfield with 42 seconds left. The Panthers bounced back from last week’s heartbreaking loss and controlled the game’s critical moments, getting a key third-quarter touchdown after Young slipped pressure and hit Ja’Tavion Sanders in stride. Tampa Bay, losers of three straight, struck early behind a Mike Evans touchdown but stalled repeatedly, finishing with just 145 passing yards from Mayfield and failing to capitalize late. The under stayed in play throughout, and Carolina (8-7) rewarded bettors backing its late-season resilience while putting itself firmly in position to play meaningful January football for the first time in nearly a decade.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans handled business and covered with ease in a 29–6 win that never threatened the number, leaning on defense, field position, and a little Taysom Hill magic to keep the Jets buried all afternoon. Hill delivered the play of the day with a surprise 38-yard touchdown pass to Chris Olave — potentially his final home highlight in black and gold — while rookie kicker Charlie Smyth tied a franchise record with five field goals in just his fourth career game. Tyler Shough was efficient and aggressive, throwing for 308 yards and a touchdown as the Saints (5-10) won their third straight, while Cameron Jordan added two sacks to move up the all-time list and help New Orleans rack up eight sacks total. The Jets’ offense never found footing behind rookie Brady Cook, who was sacked eight times, lost a fumble, and threw a late interception, keeping this one firmly in under territory despite the Saints’ steady scoring. With New York offering little resistance and New Orleans cashing tickets methodically, this was a comfortable win for Saints backers and a reminder that even late-season games can turn lopsided fast when one side controls the trenches.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Buffalo leaned on its ground game, covered in a tight window, and stayed on the right side of a modest total with a 23–20 win that pushed the Bills closer to another playoff berth. With Josh Allen limited by a foot injury suffered in the first half, James Cook took over, rushing for 117 yards and two touchdowns while ripping off a back-breaking 44-yard score early and sealing the lead with a short plunge late. Allen finished just 12 of 19 for 130 yards with no passing or rushing TDs — a rarity — but Buffalo made up for it by winning the turnover battle and controlling the game’s key moments. Cleveland stayed competitive behind rookie Shedeur Sanders, who threw for 157 yards and a touchdown but also tossed two costly interceptions that directly led to 10 Bills points. The Browns pulled within a field goal late but stalled on their final two drives, while Buffalo’s defense, led by Greg Rousseau’s 2½ sacks, closed it out. It wasn’t flashy, but it was the kind of disciplined, run-heavy win that cashes tickets late in the season and keeps Buffalo firmly on track for January.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee delivered one of the week’s most surprising results, cashing comfortably and keeping the total in check with a 26–9 win that snapped an 11-game home losing streak and handed Kansas City its fourth straight loss. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward played his most complete game of the season, throwing for 228 yards and two touchdowns while posting a 122.3 passer rating and leading a Titans offense that piled up a season-high 376 yards. Tony Pollard added 102 rushing yards, Tyjae Spears punched in a short score, and the Titans controlled the game in all three phases, including an early safety by Jeffery Simmons that set the tone. The Chiefs, already without Patrick Mahomes, lost Gardner Minshew to a knee injury and were forced to rely on emergency quarterback Chris Oladokun, who managed three field goals but no touchdowns. Tennessee’s defense recorded four sacks and never allowed Kansas City to threaten the number, turning what looked like a trap game into a straightforward cover and a rare feel-good home win for a franchise that finally found a reason to celebrate.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Jacksonville delivered one of the week’s statement wins, covering on the road and snapping Denver’s 11-game winning streak with a decisive 34–20 victory that shook up the AFC race. Trevor Lawrence was outstanding, throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns while adding a short rushing score, repeatedly answering pressure from the league’s top pass rush and going 4-for-5 in the red zone against the NFL’s best red-zone defense. After Denver tied it early in the second half, the Jaguars ripped off five straight scoring drives, fueled by Parker Washington’s breakout day (six catches, 145 yards, TD) and timely mistakes by the Broncos, including a costly fumble and late interception by Bo Nix. Denver piled up yardage but couldn’t finish, committing key penalties and turnovers that flipped momentum and pushed this one over the number late. Jacksonville (11-4) rewarded bettors backing its scorching six-week run, while Denver (12-3) absorbed its first home loss in over a year and saw its AFC West cushion shrink heading into a brutal short-week turnaround.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Atlanta covered on the road and kept this one under control late with a 26–19 win that showcased what the Falcons were supposed to be all season. Bijan Robinson carried the offense, piling up 168 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown while becoming just the third player in franchise history to surpass 2,000 total yards in a season. Kirk Cousins added a short rushing score and a late first-half touchdown to Kyle Pitts, and Atlanta built a 26–16 lead early in the fourth before leaning on its defense to close it out. Arizona had a chance to steal it late after trimming the margin to three, but practice-squad call-up C.J. Henderson sealed the outcome with a diving interception of Jacoby Brissett with 1:30 left. The Cardinals’ inability to finish drives — settling for field goals and missing two more — kept this game from flipping, rewarding bettors who backed Atlanta as short road favorites while unders stayed alive in a matchup defined by red-zone efficiency and timely defensive plays.

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

Houston didn’t look sharp, but it still covered the short number and survived late with a 23–21 win that extended its streak to seven straight and kept pressure on Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Texans leaned on their defense early with Derek Stingley’s 31-yard pick-six and steadied things late when C.J. Stroud found Dalton Schultz for a 1-yard touchdown that proved to be the difference. Stroud finished with 187 yards and a score in a game where Houston’s offense sputtered for long stretches, while Ka’imi Fairbairn chipped in three field goals to keep points coming. Las Vegas stayed live thanks to rookie Ashton Jeanty, who erupted for 188 yards from scrimmage, including a 60-yard receiving TD and a 51-yard run that briefly put Raiders backers within striking distance. A late pass-interference call and a clutch Nico Collins catch allowed Houston to drain the clock, sealing a gritty win that stayed under the total and rewarded Texans bettors who trusted the defense to close despite an uneven performance.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh cashed as road underdogs and survived one of the strangest finishes of the season with a 29–24 win that all but buried Detroit’s playoff hopes and vaulted the Steelers into the AFC North lead. The Lions thought they had pulled off a miracle when Jared Goff’s apparent game-winning touchdown on the final play was wiped out by offensive pass interference, the second TD negated by penalty in the final minute. Before the chaos, Pittsburgh dominated where bettors least expected it, outrushing Detroit 230–15 behind Jaylen Warren, who ripped off two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter and finished with a career-high 143 yards. Aaron Rodgers was steady if unspectacular, throwing for 266 yards and a late second-quarter touchdown, while the Steelers overcame a missed field goal and multiple self-inflicted mistakes to stay on the right side of the number. Detroit rallied late behind two fourth-quarter scores from Goff, but penalties, a safety, and an inability to stop the run doomed the Lions, sending this one over the total and rewarding anyone who trusted Pittsburgh’s physical edge in a high-leverage spot.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

New England flipped the script late, covering as road underdogs and cashing a dramatic 28–24 win that clinched a playoff spot and dealt a major blow to Baltimore’s postseason hopes. Drake Maye was brilliant when it mattered most, throwing for a career-high 380 yards and engineering two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including an 89-yard go-ahead drive capped by Rhamondre Stevenson’s 21-yard run with just over two minutes left. The Patriots trailed by 11 early in the fourth before Maye hit Kyle Williams for a 37-yard score and converted a 2-point try to tighten things up, then closed it out after Baltimore turned the ball over late. The Ravens lost Lamar Jackson to a back injury in the second quarter and unraveled down the stretch, fumbling away their final possession after failing to lean on Derrick Henry late. The game sailed over the total, rewarded bettors backing New England’s road dominance, and confirmed that the Patriots’ return to January football is being driven by a poised quarterback who’s thriving in high-leverage moments.

Monday Night Preview: San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

San Francisco comes in laying nearly a touchdown on Monday night in a matchup that feels bigger than the records suggest, with the 49ers (-6) able to clinch another playoff berth and the Colts trying to stop a late-season slide before it turns terminal. San Francisco has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient teams during its four-game winning streak, rarely trailing and converting third downs at an elite rate behind Brock Purdy, while Jauan Jennings has re-emerged as a red-zone problem with six touchdowns in his last six games. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has fallen out of playoff position by failing to score more than 19 points in each of its last three losses, and the pressure is squarely on Jonathan Taylor to carry the offense against a 49ers run defense that has softened since losing Fred Warner. The chess match is clear: if Indy can run the ball and protect Philip Rivers — potentially behind a reshuffled offensive line — it can shorten the game and hang inside the number, but if San Francisco forces Rivers into obvious passing situations, the gap between these teams could show quickly. With the 49ers trending up, the Colts trending down, and San Francisco owning the situational edges, this shapes up as a spot where favorites and under bettors both have a case if Indy can’t rediscover its early-season scoring rhythm.