NFL Week 12 Performance Recap

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Houston’s defense stole the night — and the cover — sacking Josh Allen eight times and riding Calen Bullock’s three-takeaway performance to a 23–19 win that pushed the Texans (6–5) above .500 and rewarded anyone who grabbed them as short home underdogs. Allen still threw for 253 yards, but the Bills (7–4) were buried behind the chains all game, repeatedly failing in long passing situations and never threatening the over despite James Cook’s 116 rushing yards and a 45-yard score. With Davis Mills managing two early TD passes and Houston’s pass rush overwhelming Buffalo’s battered offensive line, the Texans dominated the trenches and closed it out when Bullock picked off Allen on fourth-and-6 after a chaotic lateral-filled play kept Buffalo alive. Bettors who backed Houston praised the defense; anyone who took Buffalo plus the points watched the Bills’ final drive — and the game — collapse under relentless pressure.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs finally looked like the Chiefs again when it mattered, erasing an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit behind Patrick Mahomes’ 352 yards and Harrison Butker’s five field goals to stun the Colts 23–20 in overtime — a result that flipped the script for bettors who grabbed Kansas City live after a sluggish start. Indy led 20–9 entering the fourth and appeared headed for an easy cover as short road underdogs, but Daniel Jones’ inability to move the chains (just 181 yards passing, most of it early) and Shane Steichen abandoning Jonathan Taylor late opened the door for Mahomes, who hit Rashee Rice for several massive gains that pushed the total over sweat into chaos territory before Butker sealed it. Kansas City’s defense quietly dominated, holding the league’s No. 1 offense to 255 total yards and forcing four straight three-and-outs in crunch time — a promising sign for anyone eyeing the Chiefs on a short-week road spot at Dallas.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans 

Sam Darnold rebounded from last week’s four-interception disaster by throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns — including a 63-yard strike to Jaxon Smith-Njigba — to lead the Seahawks (8-3) past the Titans 30-24, a result that cashed comfortably for Seattle backers laying the small road number while pushing the total over late. Smith-Njigba, now the NFL’s receiving-yardage leader, torched Tennessee for 167 yards and two scores as Seattle built a 23-3 lead before holding off a late Titans surge that included a 90-yard punt-return TD by Chimere Dike and a final onside-kick miscue. The Titans (1-10) dropped their 10th straight at home, and Cam Ward — sacked four times — couldn’t keep pace despite 256 yards and two total TDs, while Seattle strengthened its wild-card position with a fifth win in six games.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Undrafted Division II product Emanuel Wilson powered the Packers with 107 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start, carrying a run-heavy Green Bay offense that barely needed Jordan Love as its defense suffocated Minnesota in a 23-6 win that easily covered the Packers’ short spread and pushed the game under the total. With Josh Jacobs out, Wilson logged 28 carries while Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt led a defense that produced five sacks and forced three turnovers, holding the Vikings to just 4 total yards and no points after halftime — their fewest in a half on record. Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy struggled again with 87 yards and two late interceptions as the Vikings (4-7) dropped their fifth in six games, while the Packers (7-3-1) moved to 2-0 in the division heading into a pivotal Thanksgiving matchup at Detroit.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore climbed back to .500 and cashed as the road favorite, grinding out a 23-10 win in a game that never threatened the over thanks to a sluggish first half, red-zone stalls, and two offenses stuck in neutral. Derrick Henry’s two third-quarter touchdowns flipped the script after the Ravens trailed 7-3 at halftime, while Lamar Jackson — still clearly limited — managed just 153 yards as Baltimore (6-5) leaned on defense, field position, and a huge day from punter Jordan Stout to extend its winning streak to five. The Jets (2-9) briefly took control behind Tyrod Taylor but fell apart late with penalties, a critical Breece Hall fumble in the red zone, and another failed fourth-down try, clinching a 10th straight losing season while the Ravens moved into a tie atop the AFC North.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs delivered one of the NFL’s monster performances of the season, piling up 264 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns — including a 69-yard walk-off run on the first snap of overtime — to carry the Lions to a 34-27 comeback win that also hit the over and bailed Detroit out after a shaky, spread-missing effort. The Giants blew yet another late lead, helped by interim coach Mike Kafka passing on a chip-shot field goal on fourth-and-goal, and Detroit pounced with Jake Bates drilling a 59-yarder before overtime gave Gibbs the chance to end it behind a gaping lane from the Lions’ offensive line. Jameis Winston threw for 366 yards and Wan’Dale Robinson posted 156, but New York (2-10) collapsed again down the stretch while the Lions (7-4) avoided a second straight loss and kept themselves squarely in the NFC playoff fight.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams shook off another uneven start and delivered three touchdown passes to push the Bears past the Steelers 31–28, giving Chicago (8–3) its eighth win in nine games while also rewarding anyone who backed the Bears at home in a near pick’em spot. With Aaron Rodgers sidelined by a broken wrist, Pittsburgh turned to Mason Rudolph, who kept the Steelers (6–5) competitive but couldn’t finish late as Chicago’s defense — highlighted by Montez Sweat’s two sacks and Jaquan Brisker’s fourth-down tip — closed the door and kept the over alive deep into the fourth. Williams overcame early overthrows and a strip-sack touchdown by T.J. Watt, settling in with second-half strikes to DJ Moore, whose two TDs finally reignited Chicago’s passing game. Pittsburgh briefly pulled within three on a marathon 17-play drive, but the Bears held strong to stay atop the NFC North and continue one of the league’s hottest ATS stretches over the past month.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots became the league’s first 10-win team by grinding out a 26–20 road victory over the Bengals, covering as short favorites and extending their win streak to nine while continuing one of the most reliable under trends in the NFL. Despite losing both Jared Wilson and rookie Will Campbell to injuries on the left side of the line, Drake Maye rebounded from an early pick-6 to throw for 294 yards and a touchdown, pairing with a defense that produced another Marcus Jones pick-six and four field goals from Andy Borregales. Cincinnati — still stuck without Joe Burrow but expecting him back on Thanksgiving — briefly threatened when Joe Flacco hit Mitchell Tinsley for a late touchdown, but a stalled final drive ended at the New England 26. The Pats improved to 6–0 on the road and now hold a 2.5-game AFC East lead, while bettors eyeing New England’s consistency — nine straight games scoring at least 23 and allowing 23 or fewer — continue to cash on a team that has become one of the league’s most dependable plays.

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

The Browns snapped a three-game skid behind a ruthless pass rush and a poised debut from rookie Shedeur Sanders, who threw for 209 yards and a touchdown while Myles Garrett headlined a 10-sack onslaught in a 24–10 win that also cashed comfortably for Cleveland bettors. Garrett logged three sacks — giving him an NFL-leading 18 and putting the single-season record within reach — while Quinshon Judkins punched in two early scores to give Sanders plenty of cushion as Cleveland’s defense smothered a Raiders offense that punted eight times and never found its footing behind an overwhelmed line. Though many expected the rookie storyline to overshadow everything else, Sanders backed up his pregame swagger and broke a 17-game streak of Browns QBs losing their first start, while Las Vegas dropped its fifth straight and ninth in ten, continuing an overmatched trend that has made them one of the most fade-able teams in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals

The Jaguars survived four Trevor Lawrence turnovers and a furious late push from Jacoby Brissett, escaping Arizona with a 27–24 overtime win that keeps Jacksonville firmly in the AFC playoff mix and pays off for anyone who backed them despite the roller-coaster. Lawrence delivered three touchdowns along with the chaos — including a late scoring strike to Parker Washington — before rookie kicker Cam Little, already famous for his 68-yard NFL record, drilled a smooth 52-yarder in OT to put Jacksonville ahead for good. Arizona had a chance to answer but passed on a long field goal and Brissett’s fourth-down heave fell short, sealing a loss that continues the Cardinals’ 1–8 slide and frustrates bettors who grabbed the home dog hoping the turnovers would tip the game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott broke Tony Romo’s franchise passing record and fueled a 21-point comeback, capping a wild 24–21 Dallas win with a last-second Brandon Aubrey field goal in a game that swung hard for live bettors riding the Cowboys’ momentum. Prescott threw for 354 yards, accounted for three total touchdowns and engineered his 25th career game-winning drive, pulling Dallas out of a 21-0 first-half hole as the Eagles unraveled with turnovers, special-teams mistakes and stalled drives that turned an early Philly cover into a painful beat for anyone holding Eagles -3. Jalen Hurts had three total scores but couldn’t protect the lead as A.J. Brown vanished after a hot start, while Dallas leaned on resilience, a late defensive stand and a booming 24-yard strike to George Pickens to set up the walk-off that kept Prescott’s perfect NFC East home run intact and delivered one of the weekend’s most dramatic flips on the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Kirk Cousins turned back the clock in his second start of the year, throwing two touchdowns and guiding Atlanta to a much-needed 24–10 win that snapped a five-game skid and rewarded bettors who grabbed the Falcons as short road dogs. Cousins, efficient and steady at 37 years old, hit Darnell Mooney for a 49-yard dagger in the fourth quarter to put the game away, while Atlanta’s defense smothered Saints rookie Tyler Shough with five sacks and held New Orleans without an offensive touchdown despite multiple trips inside the red zone. The Saints’ lone score came on a pick-six, and with Blake Grupe missing two makeable field goals and a botched Taysom Hill snap killing another drive, New Orleans continued its trend of burning both tickets and scoring chances in a game where the under was never truly threatened.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford strengthened his MVP case and rewarded Rams bettors who laid the points, firing three first-half touchdown passes in a 34–7 rout that pushed Los Angeles to 9–2 and into the NFC’s top seed while easily cashing for anyone who backed the Rams or the over on Stafford props. Davante Adams hauled in two scores, Cobie Durant jumped a route for a 50-yard pick-six that sent SoFi Stadium into a frenzy, and the Rams’ defense overwhelmed Tampa Bay with four sacks and two interceptions as the Bucs — already sputtering as road underdogs — lost Baker Mayfield to a shoulder injury and mustered just 193 total yards. Stafford extended his interception-free streak to 308 attempts, Puka Nacua added 97 yards, and the Rams cruised through a 31-point first half that turned the second half into a sweat-free cover while Tampa Bay, now 6–5, heads toward an MRI for Mayfield and another week of uncertainty atop a crowded NFC South.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers — Monday Night Preview

Monday night brings a matchup with real NFC playoff stakes as the resurgent Panthers visit the 49ers, with sportsbooks installing San Francisco as a solid favorite despite Carolina riding Bryce Young’s record-setting 448-yard performance and a growing reputation as one of the league’s best late-game teams. Young already has 10 career game-winning drives and will lean again on breakout rookie Tetairoa McMillan as the Panthers look to prove their 6–5 start is no fluke, even as oddsmakers push the total downward expecting a more defensive, possession-heavy game from San Francisco. Brock Purdy’s return stabilized the 49ers last week, and with Christian McCaffrey facing his former team for the first time — plus major kicking uncertainty after Matt Gay replaced the injured Eddy Pineiro — bettors are weighing whether the Panthers’ momentum and strong ATS record as underdogs can keep this close or if the healthier Niners reclaim control of the NFC under the lights at Levi’s Stadium.