NFL Week 14 Performance Recap

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

The Lions, slight 2.5-point home underdogs, delivered one of their best performances of the season, riding Jahmyr Gibbs’ three-touchdown night and a suddenly ferocious pass rush to a 44–30 win that kept their playoff hopes alive and cashed for anyone who grabbed Detroit on the moneyline. Gibbs totaled 120 scrimmage yards and iced the game late, while Jared Goff carved up Dallas for 309 yards and a score as Detroit (8–5) avoided back-to-back losses for the first time in over three years. Dallas (6-6-1), which had surged into the playoff picture and entered the night with the NFL’s top-ranked offense, repeatedly stalled out in the red zone — settling for five Brandon Aubrey field goals, including three from 55-plus yards — a brutal ATS result for Cowboys bettors given they were favored on the road. Dak Prescott threw for 376 yards but also two costly interceptions and was sacked five times, and Dallas’ momentum evaporated after losing CeeDee Lamb to a concussion. Detroit’s win pushed their playoff probability above 50%, and with the total blowing past most closing numbers in the mid-40s, this one landed comfortably over as the Lions handed Dallas a significant setback in the NFC race.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

The Titans, 3-point home underdogs, snapped their seven-game losing streak in a game that swung wildly but ultimately cashed for anyone backing Tennessee on the spread or moneyline, holding off the Browns 31–29 behind Tony Pollard’s breakout performance. Pollard gashed Cleveland for a career-high 161 yards and two scores — including a 65-yard burst that flipped early momentum — while the Titans (2–11) forced three costly second-half turnovers and turned them into 17 points, a dream script for Titans bettors and anyone playing the over on Pollard props. Rookie Cam Ward delivered his first multi-TD passing game despite modest yardage, and his go-ahead strike came just two plays after Shedeur Sanders’ ill-timed interception. Sanders (364 yards, 4 total TDs) kept Cleveland (3–10) alive late, but two failed two-point tries — both crucial for spread and total bettors — left the Browns short after a frantic rally to 31–29. Tennessee recovered the onside kick and drained the clock, sealing a win that meant far more to their locker room than draft-order positioning, and marking the first victory for interim coach Mike McCoy.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks, favored by 10.5 with a total in the mid-40s, rewarded backers in a big way by blowing open a 6–6 halftime tie and rolling to a 37–9 win, sparked immediately by Rashid Shaheed’s 100-yard kickoff-return touchdown to open the second half — a dream start for Seattle bettors and anyone holding an alternate-line ticket. Shaheed added 67 receiving yards as Sam Darnold (249 yards, 3 TDs) carved up a collapsing Falcons defense, connecting twice with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and once with Cooper Kupp, while Seattle’s top-tier defense forced three turnovers and kept Atlanta (4–9) out of the end zone entirely. Atlanta’s special-teams collapse — including the long return, a blocked field goal, and another lost fumble — ensured the Seahawks covered comfortably and the game sailed over its second-half total despite a slow opening. With Seattle (10–3) winning for the seventh time in eight games and Atlanta officially eliminated from playoff contention, the afternoon felt like two franchises headed in completely different directions, with the Seahawks openly embracing their historic defensive potential and the Falcons staring at an eighth straight losing season.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars, favored by 4.5 with a total hovering in the mid-40s, comfortably covered and pushed the game over with a 36–19 win that moved them atop the AFC South and extended Indy’s decade-long drought in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence delivered a clean, efficient outing — 244 yards and two TDs — while Travis Etienne punched in two scores on the ground as Jacksonville (9–4) pulled away early and never allowed the Colts (8–5) to counter after Daniel Jones ruptured his Achilles, a devastating blow that shifted the live line sharply toward the Jags. Riley Leonard struggled in relief, and although Jonathan Taylor kept Indy afloat for stretches, Jacksonville’s explosives — three passes of 30+ yards and a safety from Josh Hines-Allen — steadily buried the Colts as the rain-soaked afternoon turned into a one-sided divisional statement. With four straight wins and a growing chip on their shoulder, the Jaguars continue climbing while Indy, losers of four of five, now faces a brutal final month and major questions at quarterback.

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota — favored by about a field goal with a total in the low 40s — absolutely dominated from start to finish, shutting out Washington 31–0 behind J.J. McCarthy’s first turnover-free game and a 19-play, 98-yard touchdown drive that drained 12 minutes and flipped the live odds heavily in the Vikings’ favor, while the Commanders’ hopes evaporated the moment Jayden Daniels re-injured his elbow and Marcus Mariota came in and committed two turnovers; with the Vikings finally holding onto the football after entering the week with the league’s worst turnover margin, and Washington dropping its eighth straight in a game where nothing worked on either side of the ball, bettors who laid the points with Minnesota never had to sweat as the Commanders’ offense cratered, their top players went down, and the Vikings controlled the ball, the tempo, and the scoreboard all afternoon.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills 

Buffalo, laying about a touchdown with a total in the mid-40s, pulled off one of the week’s wildest swings by scoring three touchdowns in just over four minutes to erase a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit and beat the Bengals 39–34, cashing for Bills backers while blowing up what looked like a comfortable day for anyone holding Cincinnati +7.5. Christian Benford’s instinctive 63-yard pick-six jump-started the avalanche, Josh Allen totaled four TDs — including a 40-yard run that detonated the live over — and his game-sealing third-and-15 scramble let Buffalo kneel out a win that keeps them in the AFC hunt. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns but threw two costly picks on consecutive throws, turning a potential Bengals upset into another late-game collapse as Cincinnati dropped to 4–9 and all but eliminated itself from contention.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

In one of the week’s biggest upsets, the Saints cashed outright as 8.5-point underdogs and sent the Bucs tumbling out of sole possession of first place, grinding out a 24–20 road win in a rain-soaked divisional matchup that flirted with the under throughout. Rookie Tyler Shough — now 2–1 ATS and straight-up as a starter — authored two rushing touchdowns, including the decisive 13-yard scramble that flipped the game late in the fourth and wrecked moneyline parlays leaning on Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, laying more than a touchdown, never found traction in the storm, repeatedly stalling on fourth down and seeing would-be touchdown chances slip away — literally, in the case of Emeka Egbuka’s end-zone drop. Tampa Bay’s offense sputtered to 14-for-30 passing with only 122 yards as their division lead evaporated, setting up a chaotic NFC South sprint, while New Orleans — despite being buried by the betting market all week — showed enough defensive grit and timely playmaking to blow up teasers and reshape the playoff picture.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Steelers rewarded bettors who laid the short home favorite spread and cashed on the moneyline, grinding out a dramatic 27–22 win that hinged on two massive replay overturns in the final minutes. Aaron Rodgers delivered easily his best outing in a Pittsburgh uniform, throwing for 284 yards, rushing for a score, and hitting multiple explosive plays — a welcome shift for anyone backing the Steelers’ offense after several weeks of unders and sloggy performances. Baltimore, catching points on the road with a live divisional dog profile, surged late and briefly appeared to take the lead on Isaiah Likely’s would-be touchdown, but the replay reversal wiped it out, flipping both the scoreboard and live-betting markets. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens dominated on the ground, out-rushing Pittsburgh 217–34 — typically a winning formula for underdog bettors — but their red-zone failures, missed PAT, and the overturned INT that became Rodgers’ own reception left backers fuming as the Ravens fell to 6-7 and out of the AFC North’s top tier. Pittsburgh moved to 7-6, covering and strengthening its division odds, while Baltimore’s late collapse swung teasers, overs, and Ravens tickets into the loss column in a finish only this rivalry could produce.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets 

The Dolphins rewarded bettors who backed them as short road favorites, cruising to a 34–10 win that also pushed the game comfortably over the closing total thanks to Miami’s ground-game explosion. Tua Tagovailoa, who entered 1–7 in sub-46° weather, finally flipped the script, staying perfect against the Jets (7–0 as a starter) while Miami (6–7) secured its fourth straight win and kept AFC Wild Card odds alive. Devin Achane gashed New York early before leaving with a rib issue, but Jaylen Wright’s 107-yard day and Ollie Gordon II’s touchdown kept Miami’s run-heavy game plan rolling — a dream scenario for bettors who played Dolphins rushing props or alternative totals. New York, catching points at home, never threatened the spread, losing Tyrod Taylor early and leaning on undrafted rookie Brady Cook, who struggled behind a collapsing line as Miami’s defense racked up six sacks. The Jets’ only real spark came via a punt-return touchdown, but their 15th straight playoff-less season was sealed as Miami dominated both trenches, controlled pace, and covered with ease while the Jets’ offense made even live bettors wary of touching any Gang Green overs.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders 

Denver closed as a 7.5-point favorite and spent three quarters cruising toward an easy cover… until a nightmare beat on the final snap flipped tickets from winners to losers in a 24–17 Broncos victory that wasn’t nearly as close as the score. Bo Nix went 31-of-38 for 212 yards and a rushing TD, controlling the game while Denver (11–2) dominated time of possession (39 minutes) and looked every bit like the AFC’s top seed alongside New England. The Raiders (2–11), losers of seven straight, lost Geno Smith to a hand and shoulder injury before Kenny Pickett stepped in for a respectable relief appearance, but Vegas mustered just 229 total yards against a Denver defense now led by Nik Bonitto’s 12.5 sacks. Denver’s 10th straight win should’ve cashed comfortably for Broncos bettors, but a delay-of-game flag with five seconds left extended the game long enough for Daniel Carlson to drill a 46-yard field goal — a brutal swing that turned a would-be cover into one of the worst bad beats of the NFL weekend.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals 

The Rams covered with room to spare as touchdown road favorites, hammering Arizona 45–17 in a game where Matthew Stafford strengthened his late-season MVP push while the total soared past the over behind 530 yards of LA offense. Stafford carved up the Cardinals (3–10), going 22-of-31 for 281 yards and three TDs, feeding Puka Nacua for 167 yards and a pair of scores while rookie Blake Corum gashed Arizona for 128 yards and two touchdowns as the Rams (10–3) stayed tied atop the NFC West. After falling behind 7–0, LA responded with 35 unanswered, including back-to-back one-play touchdown drives that buried any chance for Cards +7.5 bettors. Jacoby Brissett threw for 271 yards and two TDs to Michael Wilson, but Arizona’s injury-ravaged defense was overwhelmed, giving up chunk play after chunk play in yet another divisional blowout — their third straight by at least 22 points. For Rams backers, this was as sweat-free as it gets; for total bettors, LA basically cashed the over by itself.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers 

In a game with massive NFC North and betting implications, the Packers (-3) covered and moved into first place with a 28–21 win, sealed when Keisean Nixon jumped Caleb Williams’ fourth-and-1 play-action heave in the end zone with :22 remaining, ending Chicago’s comeback bid and crushing any Bears moneyline hopes. Green Bay (9-3-1) improved to 4–0 in the division behind Jordan Love’s efficient 17-of-25, 234-yard, three-TD outing — two to Christian Watson and a 45-yard strike to Bo Melton — while Josh Jacobs delivered the highlight of the afternoon with a Houdini-level 21-yard run through four defenders to set up the go-ahead score. Chicago (9-4) rallied from a 14-3 halftime deficit with long, grinding drives engineered by Williams, who threw two red-zone TDs and nearly had a sixth fourth-quarter comeback before the underthrown ball ended the Bears’ hopes and secured the underdog Packers' fourth straight win. The rematch looms Dec. 20 at Soldier Field, with the division — and plenty of betting interest — likely on the line.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs 

In one of Sunday night’s biggest betting surprises, the Texans (+4.5) not only covered but rolled into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs 20–10 behind a suffocating defensive effort that held Patrick Mahomes to 14-of-33 passing, 160 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions — sending the under soaring home with ease. C.J. Stroud threw for 203 yards and a score while Nico Collins torched Kansas City for 121 yards on just four grabs, and Dare Ogunbowale’s fourth-quarter touchdown run put Houston (8-5) ahead for good as they extended their winning streak to five and stayed a game behind Jacksonville in the AFC South race. Kansas City (6-7), missing multiple offensive linemen and later losing both LT Wanya Morris and CB Trent McDuffie, failed on two critical fourth downs — including a wide-open drop by Rashee Rice — before Mahomes’ final pick sealed their worst 13-game start of the Mahomes era and dealt a crippling blow to their playoff odds.

Monday Night Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers 

With both teams sitting at 8–4 and the Eagles laying a field goal on the road (PHI -3, O/U 44.5), Monday night sets up as a heavyweight swing game with serious playoff leverage. Philadelphia enters trying to avoid a three-game skid and badly needs cleaner football after committing four turnovers in its last two outings, though Jalen Hurts did flash signs of life with 230 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago while A.J. Brown erupted for 132 yards and two scores. The real question is whether the Eagles’ struggling pass rush — tied for just 22nd in sacks — can get home against Justin Herbert, who’s expected to play through a surgically repaired non-throwing hand after being sacked 38 times already this season but still directing an offense ranked top-10 across the board and lethal on third down (48.3%, second-best in the NFL). The Chargers’ defense, meanwhile, is elite against the pass and just bottled up the Raiders for 31 rushing yards, setting up a fascinating matchup with an Eagles offense that has failed to reach 100 yards on the ground in seven games and desperately needs a bounce-back performance from Saquon Barkley. With both teams leaning heavily on their stars — Moro Ojomo replacing the injured Jalen Carter, Tuli Tuipulotu coming off a dominant multi-sack day, and Kimani Vidal fresh off a career-best 126 rushing yards — expect a tight, playoff-style contest where Herbert’s protection against Vic Fangio’s front and Philly’s ability to limit self-inflicted mistakes ultimately determine whether the Chargers defend home turf or the Eagles steady themselves under prime-time pressure.